Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
